role: assistant

text:
Yep — if the “30%” target is **30% of the trust-distribution security**, then your **SSA shouldn’t be treated as an offset**. It would have been additive in the “stayed together” world too.

Using the proxy we’ve been using (trust allowance ≈ `$16,667/mo`):
- 30% of trust stream ≈ **`$5,000/mo`** (this is the piece you’re trying to preserve)
- Your SSA at 67 (from your statement) ≈ **`$2,184/mo`**
- So your *total* at 67 would be roughly **`$7,184/mo`** (in the same “today-dollar” sense as the SSA estimate)

And the “bank balance” equivalent for just that trust-stream piece:
- `$5,000/mo` ≈ `$60k/yr` ≈ **`$1.5M`** at a ~4% draw (or ~`$1.7M` at 3.5%) — **not counting SSA**.

If you want, I can turn this into one tight sentence for Sarah (so it’s explicit that SSA isn’t meant to reduce the 30% ask).


role: user

text: right.  and what kind of payment would i need to reach $1.5M by 67?


text:
To hit **$1.5M by age 67** (your 67th birthday is **Feb 20, 2037**), starting from ~$0 and investing monthly for ~**11 years (132 months)**, you’d need to be able to **invest about**:

- **3%/yr return:** ~$9,600/mo
- **4%/yr:** ~$9,100/mo
- **5%/yr:** ~$8,550/mo
- **6%/yr:** ~$8,050/mo
- **7%/yr:** ~$7,600/mo

Equivalent as a **one-time lump sum today** (invested until 67):
- **4%/yr:** ~$967k (range ~$696k–$1.08M for 7%–3%)

Reality check vs your **$5k/mo** anchor: if you invested $5k/mo for 11 years, you’d land around **~$827k (4%) to ~$932k (6%)**, so it comes up short of $1.5M.

One key clarifier: when you say “$1.5M,” do you mean **$1.5M in 2037 dollars**, or **$1.5M in today’s purchasing power** (inflation-adjusted)?


text: what do you mean by 4% return?  the yearly appreciation?


text:
Yeah — in my math, “4% return” means **average annual total return on your invested money**, compounded (I treated it as compounded monthly).

- “Total return” = **price appreciation + dividends/interest**, assuming dividends/interest are reinvested.
- It’s a planning assumption, not a promise. Real markets bounce around; 4% is just an average over time.

Example: $100,000 invested at a steady 4% would be about **$104,000** after 1 year and about **$148,000** after 10 years (`100k * 1.04^10`).

Also: separate (confusingly similar) thing — when I said “$1.5M supports ~$60k/yr at 4%,” that **4% is a withdrawal rule-of-thumb**, not the growth rate.


text: ok - at 4% return, how much do i need each month to reach $1.5M at 67?


text:
At a **4% average annual return** (compounded monthly), starting from **$0** and saving monthly from now until you turn **67** (Feb 20, 2037; ~**132 months**), you’d need about **$9,065/month** (call it **~$9.1k/mo**) to reach **$1.5M**.

If you already have some money invested today, tell me the amount and I’ll back out the reduced monthly number.


text: none.  nada.  don't you remember that letter we wrote?


text:
Yep — I remember. The pitch explicitly says you don’t have meaningful retirement savings.

With **$0 starting balance**, saving monthly from now until you turn **67 (Feb 20, 2037)** (~**132 months**), at a **4% average annual return** you need about **$9,065/month** to end up with **$1.5M** (in **2037 dollars**).

If instead you mean **$1.5M in today’s purchasing power**, that’s closer to **~$12,550/month** (assuming ~3% inflation).


text: i do mean in today's purchasing power.


text:
Got it — “today’s purchasing power” means you want **$1.5M in 2026-dollars** at age 67 (Feb 20, 2037).

If we keep your assumption of **4%/yr investment return** and assume **~3% inflation**, that $1.5M “real” target is about **$2.08M in 2037 dollars** — which works out to needing to invest about **$12,550/month** (starting now, for ~11 years).

Rule of thumb: the monthly amount moves a lot with inflation assumptions:
- ~2% inflation → **~$11,270/mo**
- ~3% inflation → **~$12,550/mo**
- ~4% inflation → **~$13,950/mo**


text: so she cannot possibly afford that.


text:
On the trust-allowance numbers we’ve been using, you’re not wrong to flinch.

- To build **$1.5M in today’s purchasing power** by 67, we estimated ~**$12.5k/mo** invested. That’s **~$150k/yr**.
- If Lisa’s allowance is ~**$200k/yr**, that would consume **~75%** of it, leaving her **~$50k/yr** (before her own taxes/expenses). That’s *very* hard to make workable unless there are other big assets/income in the mix.

But this is the key twist: **you don’t necessarily need “$1.5M in your bank by 67”** to get “30% of the security” if the deal instead gives you **an ongoing income floor** (e.g., ~**$5k/mo** as 30% of distributions) *continuing through retirement*—plus your **SSA** on top.

So the real fork in the road to discuss with Sarah is:
1) Do you need **a funded nest egg in your name** by 67, or
2) Do you need **a durable lifetime income floor** (with enforcement/security like life insurance/backstop), or
3) A **hybrid** (some lump sum + smaller ongoing payment)?

Which one is your non-negotiable: “money in my own account” or “guaranteed monthly floor”?