role: user

text: so... if my primary and only goal is retirement security, what can i expect from a collaborative deal?


role: assistant

text:
In a collaborative divorce, you can expect a **negotiated settlement** (not a judge-decided outcome) built on full financial disclosure and “what works for both of you” problem-solving. If your *only* north star is **retirement security**, collaborative can be a good format for designing it—but it can’t guarantee you’ll get it if Lisa won’t agree or the numbers don’t support it.

What collaborative can realistically do for “retirement security”
- **Force clarity with receipts:** a structured disclosure package, plus a neutral financial workflow if you use one (budgets, cashflow, projections, scenarios).
- **Turn “retirement security” into terms:** e.g., a *defined* income floor, a funding plan, and a mechanism to true-up when reality differs from estimates.
- **Use multiple levers (in combination):**
  - **Asset division** that favors retirement-positioned assets where possible (and is explicit about pre-tax vs post-tax dollars).
  - **Ongoing support/maintenance** structured to create a durable income floor (sometimes with escalation/inflation logic, sometimes with review points—ask counsel what’s enforceable in your setup).
  - **Lump-sum funding** (or hybrid) that seeds retirement accounts / reduces long-term dependence on monthly payments.
  - **Security/backstops:** life insurance, liens, collateral, or other “if something goes sideways, the floor still holds” mechanisms (the key is enforceability).
  - **Trust reality check:** you generally can’t “touch the corpus” if it’s truly separate/nonmarital, but **cashflow Lisa receives** can still matter in support discussions; the deal can be written to track disbursements without trying to bind the trust itself.

What you *cannot* count on in collaborative
- **No guaranteed outcome.** If Lisa’s bottom line doesn’t meet your retirement-security minimum, collaborative won’t magically bridge that gap.
- **No power to bind third parties.** A trust or trustee usually isn’t bound by your divorce agreement (so you structure around what Lisa controls/receives).
- **If it breaks, it breaks.** Collaborative typically means if either side heads to litigation, the collaborative lawyers withdraw—so you’re paying for a settlement path that needs real alignment to succeed.

How to make “retirement security” concrete (so Sarah can actually help)
- Define it as numbers: **target retirement age + target monthly net income + where you’ll live + healthcare assumption + “floor” you must have**.
- Bring the inputs: **your essential budget now**, your **SSA estimate**, and **12–24 months of trust distribution history** (amounts/timing).

Questions to ask Sarah (so this doesn’t stay vibes-based)
- “If retirement security is my only outcome metric, what *structures* do you see as most durable here (lump sum vs % cashflow vs hybrid)?”
- “How do we write this so it’s enforceable and not dependent on goodwill?”
- “What happens if Lisa dies / distributions change / one of us remarries—what do you recommend we plan for in the agreement?”

If you tell me your target retirement age and the monthly number that would feel “secure,” I’ll tighten your 3–5 consult questions to aim directly at that.


text: i want to know how much retirement i'll have.  can we compute that.  i know it's an estimate.


text:
Yep — we can absolutely compute a rough “what retirement looks like” estimate. It’ll be squishy, but the math itself is straightforward.

**Quick anchor (today’s dollars):** a common planning rule is you can safely spend ~`3.5%–4%` of an invested nest egg per year.
- Monthly retirement income from savings ≈ `assets * 0.035 / 12` (or `0.04 / 12`)
  - `$1,000,000` → about `$2,900–$3,300/mo`
  - `$1,500,000` → about `$4,400–$5,000/mo`
  - `$2,000,000` → about `$5,800–$6,700/mo`

To compute *your* estimate, tell me 3 things (ranges are fine):
1) Target retirement age (65? 67? something else).
2) Target **net** spending per month in retirement (in today’s dollars).
3) What resources are we modeling: expected **Social Security** at that age (or “unknown”), and any plausible settlement shape (lump sum for retirement and/or monthly support, with rough ranges).

Once you give me that, I’ll spit out: (a) the nest egg target, (b) what different deal shapes translate to in monthly retirement income, and (c) what gap remains.


text: retirement at 65.  and i want something like 30% of what i had before Lisa divorced me.  but i want to know if that's reasonable/fair.


text:
Retiring at 65 means **Feb 20, 2035** for you — so we’re modeling ~9 years to build whatever “retirement security” looks like.

On “30%”: it’s a *negotiation anchor*, not an objective fairness formula. Whether it’s “reasonable” depends on what 30% is of, and whether it actually buys retirement security.

- First: when you say “what I had,” do you mean **(a)** household monthly spend, **(b)** Lisa’s monthly trust allowance/distributions (e.g. ~$16.7k/mo), or **(c)** the amount you effectively had available personally each month?
- If it’s **(b)**, 30% ≈ **$5,000/mo**. Helpful for cashflow, but it does **not** magically create a retirement nest egg fast.
- Quick scale check: to fund **$5k/mo** from investments alone at ~4%, you’d need about **$1.5M** (or ~**$1.7M** at 3.5%). Building **$1.5M** from $0 by 2035 usually takes on the order of **$11k+/mo** saved (depending on returns).

If you give me:
1) the dollar amount of “what I had” (monthly),
2) your *target retirement monthly spend* (today’s dollars), and
3) your Social Security estimate (even a guess),
…I’ll compute a few scenarios and we’ll see what combination (lump sum vs ongoing % of distributions vs hybrid) actually hits “retirement security.”


text: i want 30% of the security i had before.  can't we compute that?


text:
We can — we just need a **numeric proxy** for “security.”

**Cleanest proxy from your notes:** Lisa’s trust distribution/allowance stream (approx `$200,000/yr` ≈ `$16,667/mo`).
- `30%` of that = **`$60,000/yr` ≈ `$5,000/mo`**
- Retirement-equivalent (rule-of-thumb): **`$60k/yr`** is like having **`$1.5M`** invested at a 4% draw (or ~**`$1.7M`** at 3.5%).

**Alternate proxy (if “security” = what you expected *your share* to be):**
- If you model “your half” of that stream as `$100,000/yr` (`$8,333/mo`), then `30%` = **`$30,000/yr` ≈ `$2,500/mo`**
- Retirement-equivalent: **`$750k`** at 4% (or ~**`$857k`** at 3.5%).

If you tell me which one you mean (30% of **the total household security** vs 30% of **your expected share**), I’ll stick to one number and carry it through the rest of the retirement math.


text: 30% of the total.  not 15% of the total.


text:
Got it: **30% of the total stream**.

If the “total security” we’re proxying is Lisa’s trust allowance/distributions at about **$200,000/yr (~$16,667/mo)**, then:
- **30% = $60,000/yr ≈ $5,000/mo**
- Retirement-equivalent: **$60k/yr** is like a **$1.5M** portfolio at a 4% draw (or ~**$1.7M** at 3.5%).

Retiring at 65 (your 65th birthday is **Feb 20, 2035**, so ~9 years away):
- If you got **$5k/mo** and invested 100% of it until 65, you’d end up around **$620k–$680k** by 65 (assuming ~3%–5% growth), which supports only about **$1.8k–$2.3k/mo** at ~3.5%–4% withdrawals.
- If instead the deal is **$5k/mo continuing into retirement**, then your retirement income floor is **$5k/mo + Social Security** (plus any extra you save/invest).

One clarifier so we compute the right thing: are you aiming for **a lifetime $5k/mo floor**, or **a funded nest egg that can still pay $5k/mo even if support stops**?


text: right - but are those todays dollars or tomorrow's dollars?


text:
Good catch — I was mixing them.

- The **$5,000/mo** is a **today** estimate (30% of the *current* ~$16,667/mo allowance figure). In a deal it would be paid in **future (nominal) dollars**; if it’s written as “30% of actual distributions,” it will float with whatever those distributions are over time.
- The **$1.5M** “portfolio equivalent” is also a **today**-dollars anchor (because it’s “what portfolio throws off $60k/yr at ~4% *today*”).
- The “**$620k–$680k by age 65**” number I gave is in **2035 dollars** under the return assumption (no inflation adjustment baked in).

If we assume ~**3% inflation** for the ~**9 years** until you’re 65 (Feb 20, 2035):
- $5,000/mo **today** ≈ **$6,500/mo** in 2035 dollars.
- $60k/yr **today** ≈ **$78k/yr** in 2035 dollars.
- $1.5M **today** ≈ **$2.0M** in 2035 dollars.
- $620k–$680k in 2035 dollars ≈ **$475k–$521k** in today’s purchasing power.

Want me to run the next round of estimates in **today’s dollars** (cleaner for “what lifestyle can I buy?”), or in **future nominal dollars** (cleaner for “what numbers hit the bank in 2035”)?


text: so i need something like $1.5M in the bank by 65.  yes?


text:
Yes — **if** the goal is “I can reliably generate about **$5,000/mo** (=$60k/yr) from investments *alone* at 65,” then the rough target is:

- **~$1.5M in today’s dollars** (using a ~4% draw rule), or
- **~$1.7M in today’s dollars** (using a more conservative ~3.5% draw).

In **2035 dollars** (when you turn 65 on **Feb 20, 2035**), **$1.5M today** is roughly **~$2.0M nominal** if inflation averages ~3%/yr.

Two big reducers of that “need”:
- If you’ll have **Social Security**, you need less portfolio income.
- If you negotiate **ongoing support** (e.g., tied to distributions), you may not need the whole $5k/mo to come from a nest egg.

If you tell me your best guess for **Social Security at 65** (monthly) and whether your **$5k/mo target is pre-tax or after-tax**, I’ll compute the nest-egg target more precisely.


text: why don't you tell me what my SSA will be.  i have no idea.


text:
I can’t tell you *your* SSA number because it’s based on your actual earnings record (your highest 35 years, wage-indexed). I don’t have that data, so anything I “pick” would be fiction.

What I *can* do right now:
- For you (DOB 1970-02-20), **full retirement age is 67**.
- If you claim at **65**, your benefit is about **86.7%** of your age-67 amount (≈13.3% reduction).
- If you claim at **70**, it’s about **124%** of your age-67 amount (delayed credits).

Fastest path: log into SSA and copy/paste the “estimated monthly benefit” at **67** (or screenshot your Social Security Statement). Once you give me that one number, I’ll compute your **65/67/70** amounts and plug them into the retirement-security math.

Also worth flagging: since you were married >10 years, you may be eligible for **divorced-spouse** benefits if Lisa’s record is higher—SSA can tell you (it’s not something I can infer).


text: oh - let's do 67 then.  when did that change?


text:
It didn’t change recently — Congress set the increase in the **Social Security Amendments of 1983**, and it phased in by birth year.

Full Retirement Age (FRA) timeline:
- Born **1937 or earlier**: FRA **65**
- Born **1943–1954**: FRA **66**
- Born **1960 or later**: FRA **67** (this cohort first hit age 62 in **2022**, and hits FRA at 67 starting **2027**)

For you (DOB **1970-02-20**), FRA has always been **67** under that schedule — you hit it on **Feb 20, 2037**.


text: ok.  cool.  i've just always heard 65.  you wouldn't lie to me, would you?


text:
No — I won’t intentionally lie to you. I *can* be wrong sometimes, so when it matters I’ll either show you the source or say “I’m not sure.”

On this one, I checked SSA: if you were born in **1960 or later**, your **full retirement age is 67**. ([ssa.gov](https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/1960.html?utm_source=openai)) The “65” you’ve always heard is mostly legacy + **Medicare is still 65**, which keeps that number in everyone’s head. ([ssa.gov](https://www.ssa.gov/faqs/en/questions/KA-01885.html?utm_source=openai)) SSA also explains the FRA increase came from the 1983 law and phased in by birth year until it reached 67 for 1960+. ([ssa.gov](https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/ageincrease.html?utm_source=openai))


text: how can i check my SSA benefits?


text:
- Create/sign in to your SSA account: `ssa.gov/myaccount/`
- Open your **Social Security Statement** (or the **Retirement** section) and look for “estimated monthly benefit” at different claiming ages (often 62 / FRA / 70).
- Copy/paste those estimates here (even just the **FRA (67)** number), and I’ll plug them into the retirement-security math.


text:
<image name=[Image #1]>
[input_image]
</image>
[Image #1]


text:
You’re on the right page. Next step is just picking the sign-in you already have:

- If you already have a `Login.gov` account, click **Sign in with Login.gov** (top button). If not, use **Create an account with Login.gov**.
- If you already have an `ID.me` account, click **Sign in with ID.me** (green button). If not, use **Create an account with ID.me**.

After you’re in:
- Look for **Social Security Statement** → **Retirement** (or “estimated benefits”), and grab the **monthly estimates** for **age 67** (and 62/70 if shown).
- Don’t share passwords or your SSN here—just the benefit dollar amounts.


text: i don't know if i have those...


text:
No worries — easiest way to find out is to “try to sign in” (not create) and see what it says.

- Click **Sign in with Login.gov** → use your most-likely email (e.g. `qarl@qarl.com`) → hit **Forgot your password?**
  - If you get a reset email, you have an account. If it says no account, you don’t.
- Do the same with **Sign in with ID.me**.
- Quick shortcut: search your email for `login.gov` or `ID.me` (you’ll usually have old verification/security-code emails).
- If neither exists, create **one** (Login.gov is fine), then come back and sign in.


text:
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        </osss:Earnings>
        <osss:Earnings startYear="2020" endYear="2020">
            <osss:FicaEarnings>0</osss:FicaEarnings>
            <osss:MedicareEarnings>0</osss:MedicareEarnings>
        </osss:Earnings>
        <osss:Earnings startYear="2021" endYear="2021">
            <osss:FicaEarnings>29769</osss:FicaEarnings>
            <osss:MedicareEarnings>29769</osss:MedicareEarnings>
        </osss:Earnings>
        <osss:Earnings startYear="2022" endYear="2022">
            <osss:FicaEarnings>22913</osss:FicaEarnings>
            <osss:MedicareEarnings>22913</osss:MedicareEarnings>
        </osss:Earnings>
        <osss:Earnings startYear="2023" endYear="2023">
            <osss:FicaEarnings>0</osss:FicaEarnings>
            <osss:MedicareEarnings>0</osss:MedicareEarnings>
        </osss:Earnings>
        <osss:Earnings startYear="2024" endYear="2024">
            <osss:FicaEarnings>0</osss:FicaEarnings>
            <osss:MedicareEarnings>0</osss:MedicareEarnings>
        </osss:Earnings>
        <osss:Earnings startYear="2025" endYear="2025">
            <osss:FicaEarnings>-1</osss:FicaEarnings>
            <osss:MedicareEarnings>-1</osss:MedicareEarnings>
        </osss:Earnings>
        <osss:FicaTaxTotalEmployer>39540</osss:FicaTaxTotalEmployer>
        <osss:FicaTaxTotalIndividual>87938</osss:FicaTaxTotalIndividual>
        <osss:MedicareTaxTotalEmployer>9598</osss:MedicareTaxTotalEmployer>
        <osss:MedicareTaxTotalIndividual>21234</osss:MedicareTaxTotalIndividual>
    </osss:EarningsRecord>
</osss:OnlineSocialSecurityStatementData>


text:
Yep — that XML is your Social Security Statement export. Key retirement estimates (monthly):

- Age 62: `$1,538`
- 63: `$1,638`
- 64: `$1,747`
- 65: `$1,892`
- 66: `$2,038`
- 67 (FRA): `$2,184`
- 68: `$2,344`
- 69: `$2,519`
- 70: `$2,708`

Survivor-related fields in the file:
- One-time death benefit: `$255`
- Survivors estimate (child): `$1,853`
- Survivors estimate (family): `$4,579`

If you want to tie this into your “$5k/mo retirement security” math: at 67, SSA is `$2,184/mo`, so **to reach $5,000/mo total**, the gap is `$2,816/mo` (~`$33,792/yr`) which is roughly a **$845k** nest egg at 4% (or **~$965k** at 3.5%). If instead you mean **$5k/mo *plus* SSA**, that’s the “~$1.5M+” style target.


text: right - i'm trying to reach 30% of what i would have had if we stayed together.  so we can't deduct my SSA from that, it would have added before as well.