29 november 2000 suppose i asked you to draw a card from a deck. O O the deck, i tell you, has cards numbered from 1 O to N, where N is a number I know, but I'm not O O telling you. O O O O suppose you draw the card numbered 4. can you O O O make any guesses as to the value of N? O O O O O O well, you can be sure that N is not 3 or less. O O O O 4 is an okay value for N. so is 5, and any O O O O number above. but 10000000 is probably a O O O O bad guess for N - if N were so large, you'd OO OO expect to have drawn a number much larger than OO O OO 4. OO O O O OOO O O now, let's change things around. OO OO OO OOO OO O this time, I tell you that N is the number of OOO OO OO people who will ever exist on the planet earth. OOO OO OO suppose I tell you you're the 6 billionth OOOO OO O person. can you make any guesses as the the OOOOO OO O value of N? OOOOO OO O OOOOO OOOO OOOOO OOO OOOOOO OOO OOO OOOOOO -k |